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THE RELEVANCE AND ROLE OF CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURES IN THE
POST-NUCLEAR SOUTH ASIA
PROJECT DIRECTOR: DR. MOONIS AHMAR, PROFESSOR,
DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, UNIVERSITY OF KARACHI, KARACHI-75270, PAKISTAN.
TELEPHONE: 011-9221-4994717
FAX: 011-9221-4972526
EMAIL: mahmar@kuird.org
DURATION OF THE PROJECT: MARCH 15, 2000 TO DECEMBER 31, 2001
FUNDED BY: THE US INSTITUTE OF PEACE, WASHINGTON DC, UNITED STATES
I
. PROJECT DESCRIPTION The security environment of South Asia has drastically changed as a result of Indian and Pakistani
nuclear tests conducted in May 1998. From ambiguity, India and Pakistan have now overtly declared their nuclear capability. Events of May 1998 in South Asia tend to redefine the security concerns of India and Pakistan
with a feeling that new opportunities for managing unresolved conflicts through cooperative threat reduction and revitalization of Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) exist. With the overt nuclearization of India and
Pakistan and the unresolved conflicts, the need to maintain communication lines between the political and military leadership of the two countries has been realized by the concerned circles.
The three basic questions, which this project seeks to address, is:
- How could CBMs play their role in cooperative threat reduction between India and Pakistan?
- What Threat Reduction Measures (TRM) could be adopted by New Delhi and Islamabad to lower the temperature and successfully deal with new security challenges emanating from the nuclear tests of India and
Pakistan?.
- How could the perceptions of official and non-official circles gathered through the findings conducted under this project help implement old CBMs, evolve new CBMs and restart the process of conflict resolution
between India and Pakistan?
Notwithstanding the fact that the CBMs reached between India and Pakistan, both at the military and non-military level, couldn't better the security environment of South Asia, with the nuclearization of
New Delhi and Islamabad, it has become imperative for the two neighboring countries to rethink, redefine and reactive the process of confidence-building measures as a necessary requirement for the resolution of their
conflicts. Such an approach meets all the conditions of urgency and rationality if we view the absence of mutual trust, confidence and political will among the policy-makers of India and Pakistan to address some of the
basic issues emanating in the post-nuclear tests period. It is on these grounds that the project seeks to study the significance of a mechanism for cooperative threat reduction between India and Pakistan and the role,
which CBMs can play in the process of conflict resolution in South Asia. While searching ground for a new mechanism of confidence-building between India and Pakistan the project will look into factors
which will shape the security environment of South Asia in the days to come. The project will also suggest new set of verification measures in the area of cooperative threat reduction. In this connection, the project
will consult similar studies in other crisis and conflict areas of the world so as to get a better insight about the concept of cooperative threat reduction. II. OBJECTIVES As a result of nuclear tests of India and Pakistan,
the security environment of South Asia is facing numerous challenges. In this background, the question arises: are the policy-makers of India and Pakistan in a position to deal with threats to their security emanating
from different directions? The absence of trust and confidence among the leaders of India and Pakistan, as evident during the Kargil crisis of May-July 1999, is cited as a major cause of tension in South Asia
undermining the significance of CBMs reached between New Delhi and Islamabad since 1990 for reducing security threats. The project seeks to accomplish the following objectives: 1. To
propose new confidence-building measures so as to establish a mechanism of cooperative threat reduction between India and Pakistan in the post-nuclear tests period. 2. To suggest
a methodology for the proper management and implementation of existing CBMs between India and Pakistan, particularly at the military level. 3. To initiate
a debate in the concerned policy-making circles for the establishment of "risk reduction centers" for the avoidance of nuclear war in South Asia. 4. To propound
measures, which could promote better management of security challenges emanating from the nuclearization of South Asia. 5. To promote
a discussion and debate in concerned circles, particularly among the young generation about the real security threats to India and Pakistan. 6. To examine
how India and Pakistan could learn lessons from management of post-nuclear challenges in other similar cases. 7. To establish a program on Conflict Resolution (CR) and Confidence-Building Measures at the Department
of International Relations, University of Karachi so as to create proper awareness among people about the role of CR and CBMs. III. HYPOTHESIS The main hypothesis, which this project seeks to prove, is, In the post-nuclear test era, peace and security of South Asia depends on formulating a mechanism of
cooperative threat reduction based on the implementation of existing CBMs and the adoption of new CBMs between India and Pakistan. IV. LITERATURE SURVEY While material on the topic dealing with the conceptual and pre-Indo-Pakistan nuclear tests is available in different libraries and on the Web, the published matter on the theme
of the project in the post-nuclear test period is still not easily available. Experts on the South Asian security are still in the process of presenting their views on cooperative threat reduction and the new role of
CBMs in a published form. Some of the literature concerning the project deals with the different aspects of CBMs in South Asia and Cooperative Security arrangements between India and Pakistan. These materials are
listed below. 1. Ahmar, Moonis, Indo-Pak Normalization process: The role of CBMs in the post-Cold War Era. Illinois: ACDIS, 1993. 2. -------------------,
Confidence-Building Measures in South Asia. Geneva: The Graduate Institute of International Studies, 1991. 3. Ahmed, Samina and Das Suranjan,
Movement of People, Ideas, Trade and Technology: Toward a Peaceful Coexistence of India and Pakistan Albuquerque: Sandia National Laboratories, March 1998. 4. Krepon, Michael and Sevak, Amit, (eds.),
Crisis Prevention, Confidence Building, And Reconciliation Between India and Pakistan. Lahore: Vanguard Books, 1996. 5. Khanna, D.D. Sustainable Development Environmental Security, Disarmament
And Development In South Asia. New Delhi: Macmillan India Ltd., 1997. 6. Syed, Fasahat, Hussain (ed.), Nuclear Disarmament and Conventional Arms Control Including Light Weapons
. Rawalpindi: FRIENDS, 1997. 7. Wignaraja, Ponna and Hussain, Akmal (eds.), The Challenge in South Asia. Karachi: Oxford University Press, 1989. 8. Waslekar, Sundeep,
A Handbook For Conflict Resolution In South Asia. New Delhi: Konark Publishers, 1996. 8. A Handbook of Confidence-Building Measures for Regional Security (3rd
Edition) Washington DC: The Henry L. Stimson Center, March 1998. 9. Confidence Building Measures (CBMS) In South Asia: Practice, Problems and Prospects
(Islamabad: Institute of Regional Studies, January 1996.)
V. RESEARCH RESULTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS Research conducted in the project is likely to produce following results, a. Discussion and networking with the "concerned experts" and "concerned
institution" about the theme of the project in South Asia and outside the region. b. Spread of ideas pertaining to the concepts of cooperative threat reduction, reactivation management and adoption of new CBMs
between India and Pakistan, particularly in academic institutions, media, print and electronic and sections which are considered critical to the concepts CBMs, Conflict Resolution and the peace process.
c. Impact of the study on the policy-making process of India and Pakistan and in related institutions. d. Initiate a debate in the academic and non-academic circles of South Asia about the theme of the project by
holding of workshops and meetings. e. Findings of the Project would be published in local languages in very simple manner to make the common people understand the importance of peace and confidence- building
measures. The findings of the research conducted will be disseminated
in concerned policy oriented research centers, think tanks and various government circles of India and Pakistan. It is expected that the research study will help the policy-makers in New Delhi and Islamabad to formulate a new security approach based on cooperative threat reduction and the proper implementation of confidence-building measures. The Project Director, along with the members of the Project Team will also give presentation on the theme of research in the concerned institutions of South Asia and will publish the findings of his research in related newspapers, magazines and academic journals. Efforts will be made to disseminate ideas related to the Project in the Vernacular Press and those sections of society where enough knowledge about the need and importance of CBMs and Conflict Resolution is not available. Although, a qualitative change in the policy in favor of the theme of the project is not immediately expected, by following a proactive approach, the Project Director, along with the research team hopes to draw the attention of concerned circles to the need for formulating an approach to deal with the post-nuclear security challenges.
VI. METHODOLOGY AND PROJECT RESULTS Scientific approach of research will be followed in this study. The project will be based on
literature survey, interviews with experts involved in the security issues of India and Pakistan in the post-nuclear tests scenario. Emphasis will be made to consult sources that could establish a linkage between the
concepts of cooperative threat reduction, confidence-building measures and verification tools in the Indo-Pak situation. Apart from disseminating project result through short newspaper and magazine articles in South
Asia, an important accomplishment of the project will be the preparation of a report. In the last few years, the Department has published several studies on security issues of the South, Central and Middle Eastern
regions V. DATA BANK
Through this project, a data bank containing information about conflicts between India and Pakistan will be established. For this
purpose, relevant information from different websites will be downloaded and included in the data bank. The proposed data bank will be made available on the website of the project.
VI. RATIONALE OF THE PROJECT This project differs from previous similar efforts because to my knowledge no initiative has been taken in any Pakistani academic institution or a research think tank
to carry out an in-depth study on how could CBMs play a meaningful role for reducing the threat of war between India and Pakistan in the post-nuclear situation and how could CBMs help in playing a useful role in
promoting cooperation between the two countries at the military and non-military levels. Most important, this project, which will be launched in an academic institution, will help create awareness among the young
generation of Pakistan and also of India about the usefulness of CBMs. It will also help to reduce negative propaganda carried out by extremist elements in academia and in different segments of society about the concept
of CBMs. The new thing about the project is that it will also give an opportunity for meaningful contacts between Pakistani and Indian academic institutions and other think-tanks. Contacts through Internet, travel,
meetings and workshops under this project will also facilitate dialogue, particularly between the younger generation of India and Pakistan from diverse backgrounds on ways to resolve conflicts. Another thing, which
makes this project different from earlier efforts, is its emphasis on giving a positive picture of CBMs, Conflict Resolution and other measures to normalize relations between India and Pakistan in the post-nuclear
period. Nevertheless, initiative taken by a Project team based in the University of Karachi will have a modest impact on building positive opinion about the processes of CBMs and CR in South Asia. University of Karachi
is the only academic institution of Pakistan where there exists so much ethnic and other diversities and the project will help generate debate and discussion in Pakistan about the role and usefulness of CBMs and CR for
avoiding war and institutionalizing the process of negotiations between New Delhi and Islamabad.
VIII. PROJECT TEAM The Project will have following team members (tentative) :- PAKISTAN 1. Dr. Moonis Ahmar, Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, University of Karachi (Project Director.)
2. Prof. Talat A. Wizarat, Department of International Relations, University of Karachi.
3. Prof. Syed Sikander Mehdi, Department of International Relations, University of Karachi.
4. Mr. Sheikh Mutahir Ahmed, Lecturer, Department of International Relations, University of Karachi.
5. Mr. Farhan H. Siddiqui, Lecturer, Department of International Relations, University of Karachi.
6. Ms. Arshi Saleem, Lecturer, Department of International Relations, University of Karachi.
7. Dr. Maqsoodul Hasan Nuri, Senior Research Officer, The Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad.
8. Ms. Mussarat Qadeem, Lecturer, Department of Political Science, University of Peshawar
INDIA 1. Dr. Amitabh Mattoo, Associate Professor & Chairperson, Disarmament Division, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
2. Dr. Kanti
Bajpai, Associate Professor, Disarmament Division, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
3. Dr. M..J. Vinod, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Banglore.
4. Dr. Navnita Chada, an expert on CBM and security affairs, based in New Delhi.
5. Suranjan Das, Professor, Department of International Relations, University of Calcutta, India.
6. Mr. Praful Bidwai, an expert on security affairs based in New Delhi.
7. Ms. Lalita Panickar, senior Assistant Editor, Times of India, New Delhi.
8. Mr. Sundeep Wesleker, International Center for Peace Initiatives, Bombay. BANGLADESH 1. Dr. Iftekharuzzaman, Executive Director, Bangladesh Freedom Foundation, Dhaka. SRI LANKA
1. Dr. Amal Jayawardene, Professor, Department of International Relations, University of Colombo
SCHEDULE OF THE PROJECT Phase One starting from March 15, 2000 till August 15, 2000
1. Hiring of research assistants. 2. Hiring of part-time administrative coordinator. 3. Conduct of archival research. 4. Collection of data. 5. Networking with the concerned experts/institutions.
6. Creation of Project's website 7. Creation of a data bank on the literature published on conflicts between India and Pakistan.
8. Creation of data bank on the literature published on CBMs between India and Pakistan 9. Review Meeting
Phase Two starting from August 16, 2000 till March 15, 2001
Phase Three starting from March 16, 2001 till December 31, 2001
1. Draft of the final report. 2. Draft of the proceedings of the Workshop. 3. Final review meeting. 4. Publication of the final report and proceedings of the workshop
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