Work shop on Early Warning System

CONCEPT PAPER

WORKSHOP ON EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS:
POTENTIAL FOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT AND REGIONALCOOPERATION
ORGANIZED BY
THE DEPARMTENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, UNIVERSITY OF KARACHI AND
THE HANNS SEIDEL FOUNDATION, ISLAMABAD

MARCH 17-18, 2009 AT THE GOETHE-INSTITUT, KARACHI.

INTRODUCTION

Early warning is a concept which aims to caution state authorities and societal forces to cope with natural and man made disasters. With the emergence of new conflicts and the intensity of natural disasters in different parts of the world, the need of early warning to deal with such issues in order to reduce human casualties and ordeal gained prominence. In a situation when the threat of conflict escalation is not understood and the government is not warned to deal with an impending catastrophe, the outcome may be colossal human sufferings. In some cases, when early warning is given for a natural or man made disasters, the government simply lacks the mechanism to effectively deal with such a warning.

Kumar Rupesinghe, the pioneer of early warning mechanism in South Asia argues that, 'the concept and establishment of an "early warning" system for natural and mad-made disasters has been a growing concern for a variety of international organizations in recent years. The concern is based on an increased humanitarian consciousness to develop information systems which could not only establish rapid and early forms of reporting, but also develop ways of preventing the repeated occurrences of such disasters."

Present day International Relations have reached a critical point because majority of states are unable to cope with threats which endanger the survival of mankind. It is not only the case of ethnic, sectarian, religious, political, cultural and environmental conflicts which tend to augment insecurity and crisis but the failure of states to evolve a system which can provide early warning to the outbreak of such conflicts. Likewise, in terms of natural disasters also, the absence of early warning in many countries also causes enormous physical and material destruction. Floods, cyclones and earthquakes take the toll of not only human lives but also result into their displacement and destruction to property. Hence, there is the need, relevance and rationale for an early warning mechanism in order to cope with crises, disasters and other types of threats to human survival.

With the advancement in science and technology and the growing awareness among people about natural and man made disasters, there is a hope that one can proceed in the direction of evolving early warning systems which can monitor potential conflicts, their possibility of escalation and suggest measures for the prevention of such conflicts to take a serious shape. By acquiring the expertise in early warning, state and non-state actors can also hope to manage crises and strive for regional cooperation. Nevertheless, the concept of early warning if understood and applied in a professional manner can become a basis of managing crisis at different levels and promote the process of cooperation among the countries of different regions of the world.

In the world of globalization, soft power, information technology and geo-economics, one can expect more and more sharing of knowledge and expertise on issues which can make the people of this world secure. Early warning is one such technique which can minimize the risks and threats to domestic, regional and international peace and security. Consequently, the process of regional cooperation will also get an impetus if state and non-state actors share experience and expertise in early warning so as to cope with natural and man made disasters.

Mission Statement

The purpose of two-day workshop on Early Warning Systems: Potential for Crisis Management and Regional Cooperation is to have an interactive discussion on the concept of early warning and its application in Pakistan, other South Asian countries and various regions of the world with a purpose to find a link between early warning, crisis management and regional cooperation.

Some of the questions which can be raised while examining the concept of early warning mechanisms in terms of crisis management and regional cooperation are:-

What is the concept of early warning and how the early warning system can help prevent the outbreak of crisis and conflict?

What can be the role of technology, media, governmental and non-governmental organizations for establishing early warning systems?

How early warning can help disaster management?

How early earning can help military crisis management?

What is the role of earning warning for dealing with health and epidemics hazards?

What are the limitations to establish early warning systems?

How the systems of early warning help manage crises and promote regional cooperation?

How early warning mechanism is functioning in different regions of the world?

What is the future of early warning mechanism for crisis management and regional cooperation?

Following are the objectives of the workshop:-

To examine in depth the concept of early warning in the context of Pakistan and other South Asian countries.
To discuss early warning mechanism for crisis management and regional cooperation.
To explore the possibility of establishing early warning system in Pakistan.
To have an interactive discussion on examining early warning systems in different regions of the world.
To examine the limitations in early warning and to explore the possibility of dealing with such limitations.
To publish the proceedings of the workshop in the form of a book.

PPSCR

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