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THE RELEVANCE AND ROLE OF CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURES IN THE POST-NUCLEAR SOUTH ASIA
PROJECT DIRECTOR:
DR. MOONIS AHMAR, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, UNIVERSITY OF KARACHI, KARACHI-75270, PAKISTAN.
I. PROJECT DESCRIPTION
The security environment of South Asia has drastically changed as a result of Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests conducted in May 1998. From ambiguity, India and Pakistan have now
overtly declared their nuclear capability. Events of May 1998 in South Asia tend to redefine the security concerns of India and Pakistan with a feeling that new opportunities for managing unresolved conflicts through cooperative
threat reduction and revitalization of Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) exist. With the overt nuclearization of India and Pakistan and the unresolved conflicts, the need to maintain communication lines between the political and
military leadership of the two countries has been realized by the concerned circles. The three basic questions, which this project seeks to address, is:
Notwithstanding the fact that the CBMs reached between India and Pakistan, both at the military and non-military level, couldn't better the security environment of South Asia, with the nuclearization of New
Delhi and Islamabad, it has become imperative for the two neighboring countries to rethink, redefine and reactive the process of confidence-building measures as a necessary requirement for the resolution of their conflicts. Such an
approach meets all the conditions of urgency and rationality if we view the absence of mutual trust, confidence and political will among the policy-makers of India and Pakistan to address some of the basic issues emanating in the
post-nuclear tests period. It is on these grounds that the project seeks to study the significance of a mechanism for cooperative threat reduction between India and Pakistan and the role, which CBMs can play in the process of
conflict resolution in South Asia. While searching ground for a new mechanism of confidence-building between India and Pakistan the project will look into factors which will shape the security environment of
South Asia in the days to come. The project will also suggest new set of verification measures in the area of cooperative threat reduction. In this connection, the project will consult similar studies in other crisis and conflict
areas of the world so as to get a better insight about the concept of cooperative threat reduction.
II. OBJECTIVES
As a result of nuclear tests of India and Pakistan,
the security environment of South Asia is facing numerous challenges. In this background, the question arises: are the policy-makers of India and Pakistan in a position to deal with threats to their security emanating from
different directions? The absence of trust and confidence among the leaders of India and Pakistan, as evident during the Kargil crisis of May-July 1999, is cited as a major cause of tension in South Asia undermining the
significance of CBMs reached between New Delhi and Islamabad since 1990 for reducing security threats. The project seeks to accomplish the following objectives: 1. To propose
new confidence-building measures so as to establish a mechanism of cooperative threat reduction between India and Pakistan in the post-nuclear tests
period. 2. To suggest a methodology for the proper management and implementation of existing CBMs between India and Pakistan, particularly at the military level.
3. To initiate a debate in the concerned policy-making circles for the establishment of
"risk reduction centers" for the avoidance of nuclear war in South Asia. 4. To
propound measures, which could promote better management of security challenges emanating from the nuclearization of South Asia. 5. To promote
a discussion and debate in concerned circles, particularly among the young generation about the real security threats to India and Pakistan. 6. To examine
how India and Pakistan could learn lessons from management of post-nuclear challenges in other similar cases. 7. To establish a program on Conflict Resolution (CR) and Confidence-Building Measures at the
Department of International Relations, University of Karachi so as to create proper awareness among people about the role of CR and CBMs.
III. HYPOTHESIS
The main hypothesis, which this project seeks to prove, is, In the post-nuclear
test era, peace and security of South Asia depends on formulating a mechanism of cooperative threat reduction based on the implementation of existing CBMs and the adoption of new CBMs between India and Pakistan.
IV. LITERATURE SURVEY
While material on the topic dealing with the conceptual and
pre-Indo-Pakistan nuclear tests is available in different libraries and on the Web, the published matter on the theme of the project in the post-nuclear test period is still not easily available. Experts on the South Asian security
are still in the process of presenting their views on cooperative threat reduction and the new role of CBMs in a published form. Some of the literature concerning the project deals with the different aspects of CBMs
in South Asia and Cooperative Security arrangements between India and Pakistan. These materials are listed below.
1. Ahmar, Moonis, Indo-Pak Normalization process: The role of CBMs in the post-Cold
War Era. Illinois: ACDIS, 1993.
All content (C) Department of International Relations, Karachi University
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